sexta-feira, 27 de fevereiro de 2009

DOW DESDE 1932, ANÁLISES, ELOCUBRAÇÕES E A CALCINHA DA LUMA

NOTA- OS NÚMEROS QUE VOCÊS VERÃO NA PARTE DE BAIXO DE CADA GRÁFICO REPRESENTAM ANOS.

Fui estudar os gráficos como faço diariamente e hoje tive uma grata surpresa.
Uso o Enfoque.
Não me adapto a nenhuma outra plataforma, por costume.
Sempre senti falta de ter uma base histórica de dados mais antiga nos índices americanos.
Para minha felicidade o Enfoque disponibilizou ,pela primeira vez ,pelo menos pra mim, gráficos do Dow Jones desde 1932.(sem querer abusar, mas poderia ser desde 1929.Quatro anos a mais nada mudariam, não?)
Curiosos?
Então, adiante.
E por favor não entrem em pânico com a minha linha de tendência de alta.
Esse post é apenas uma curiosidade e isso TEM QUE FICAR CLARO.
O mercado sempre fez, faz , e fará oque quiser.
CLIQUE NO GRÁFICO PARA AMPLIA-LO
A linha amarela é a LTA(linha de tendência de alta) que parte de 1932 até hoje.
O meu único leitor que já era nascido é o Bovespinha, que nesta data já era trader experiente.
O toque na LTA data de 1982.
Antes,ela foi quase testada, embora não tocada, em 1974 e em 1980.
De 1982 até hoje o Dow engatou uma veemênte tendência de alta, se afastando de forma cavalar da LTA.
E tais testes nunca mais ocorreram.
Mas...
LTAs são como um imã nos preços.
Uma hora eles , os preços, buscam ela, a linha de tendência.
Mesmo que isso demore décadas.
O segundo gráfico é o mesmo, só que tracei um canal de alta que foi perfeito entre 1932 e 1995 quando foi rompido para cima.
Hoje já temos a linha superior sendo perdida e possívelmente teremos o teste na linha inferior.
É como Luma de Oliveira aparecer no jornal pagando calcinha.
Pode demorar, mas ela vai fazer de novo,diante de 150 fotógrafos, sem querer, é claro .
Acima Luma, sendo observada pelos passistas Oliveira e Fontes.Reparem que entre as pernas, com rosto escondido ,está o Fábio.

A linha traçada desde 1932 até os dias de hoje propõe um teste na região dos 4000/5000 pontos.
Lembrem-se:
O único toque se deu em 1982.
Cinquenta anos depois do ponto de partida.
Um novo toque ,quase trinta anos depois não é improvável.
Se vai, não sei.
Até acho umas coisas ,mas não digo.
Porque quem acha em bolsa quebra ,segundo eu mesmo.
Mas com Barackinho Maluquinho da Silva como Presidente, tudo é possível.
Se caiu de 14.000 para 7.000 pontos em poucos mêses, mais uns 2.500 pontos não é nenhuma heresia .
Sigamos.
Estamos analisando um gráfico mensal e pegando um periodo de cerca de 80 anos.
Sendo assim, lembrem- se:
Os movimentos são lentos. Estamos brincando de olhar a História.
Olhem esse periodo aqui:
CLIQUE NO GRÁFICO PARA AMPLIA-LO
Acima , um zoom no gráfico do Dow. Vejam como durante esse periodo que vai de 1963 até 1982 o índice fica numa enorme congestão.Quase vinte anos de lado.Oque quero dizer com isso? Apenas que mercados podem ficar anos indefinidos.
Agora vamos divagar.

A PERDA DE SUPORTES VITAIS, OU OS PIVÔS DE BAIXA.Acima temos o gráfico do Dow com um super zoom no periodo entre 1938 e 1942.Segunda guerra mundial. Perdeu o suporte, que chamo de vital, logo depois, repicou forte e retomou a tendência de alta. Olhando outros períodos vê-se que isso se repete. A tendencia primária de alta, toda vez que é ameaçada, reage.

Acima o atual momento com seu principal suporte, nos 7200 sendo testado. É possível e até normal que ele seja perdido, trazendo o índice para a casa dos 5.000 pontos,como explicado acima. De novo:

Isso é um estudo e baseado num gráfico mensal. Repiques violentos são possíveis,normais, mas me parece que o teste na linha de tendência de alta é questão de tempo.

DOW DESDE 1932 E AS BOLLINGER BANDS DE 60 PERÍODOS.

Acima o mesmo gráfico do Dow mensal onde plotei bollinger bands de 60 períodos.
Porque 60?
Porque representam 5 anos, e analisando um periodo de quase 80 anos achei interessante ter tal referência.
Em estudos como esse ,que comprêendem décadas, mudamos os set ups dos indicadores e osciladores que costumamos utilizar.
As setas azuis nos mostram os testes na banda inferior, e oque ocorreu depois.
A última seta, verde, nos mostra momento atual,HOJE, PARA FORA DA BANDA,COMO NUNCA ANTES.

Aqui as bandas de Bollinger de 60 periodos, com zoom nos dias de hoje, e o círculo pink mostrando os preços MUITO fora dela.Se isso fosse um trade, era compra, como explicado aqui diversas vezes na técnica de Bovespinguer.

REPITO PARA QUE NÃO SEJA MAL INTERPRETADO: Isso é apenas um estudo. Não sei se vai a 5.000 pontos. Pode ir, pode não ir.E muito menos dizendo que é pra vender nesses níveis. Com tamanha volatilidade um repique pode simpesmente quebrar um vendido em poucos pregões,atropelando qualquer estope.

PS- O IFR(índice de força relativa) está no seu nível mais baixo desde 1932, pelo gráfico mensal.

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Só uma observação: se o mercado ficar de lado por alguns anos (ou mesmo subir um pouco), a LTA poderá ser tocada em um nível acima de 4000,5000 pts. Poderá ser tocada até acima do nível atual (7300). Concordam?

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